Impacts of deforestation on childhood malaria depends on wealth and vector biology

Abstract Ecosystem change can profoundly affect human wellbeing and health, including exposure to vector-borne infectious diseases. Deforestation has increased human exposure to mosquito vectors and malaria risk in Africa, but there is little understanding of how socioeconomic and ecological factors moderate this relationship. We examined the relationship between deforestation and malaria prevalence for children under five in six Sub-Saharan African countries, using demographic and health survey data for 11746 children linked to remotely sensed environmental variables. We find that deforestation is associated with increased malaria prevalence. This relationship is strongest in the poorest households but not significant in the richest, suggesting deforestation has disproportionate health impacts on the poor. In poorer households, malaria prevalence is 27–33% larger for one standard deviation increase in deforestation. Deforestation is associated with increased malaria prevalence in regions where Anopheles gambiae and An. funestus are dominant vectors, but not in areas of An. arabiensis. These findings indicate that deforestation is an important driver of malaria risk among the world’s most vulnerable children, and its impact depends critically on often-overlooked social and biological factors. An in-depth understanding of the link between ecosystems and human health is crucial in designing conservation policies that benefit people and the environment.