If Russia were in Africa: Analyzing the double bias of EU and U.S. sanctions

This article examines the double bias that the two most important senders of economic sanctions, the European Union and the United States, frequently introduce into their coercive measures. Distinguishing between sanction incidence and intensity, we conceive of the executive branch of the two senders as opportunistic actors that balance the influence of competing interest groups. We argue that economic interest groups try to prevent the imposition of strong sanctions if important interests are at stake. However, strong diasporas from the target state and violations of core liberal values increase the chance of forceful measures. Our examination of the post-Cold War era lends support to our demand- and supply-side analysis of the double bias in the coercive regimes of these two Western powers. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the measures of the EU against Russia and of the U.S. against China have been repeatedly too weak during the post-Cold War era.