Instantaneous LEM back-analyses of major rockslides triggered during the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence

Abstract. Among the almost 1400 landslides triggered by the shocks of the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence, only a limited number, all classifiable as rockslides, involved volumes larger than 100 m3. Four of these failures, including the three largest, were described in terms of structural and geomechanical investigations in a previous study. In this paper, the mechanics of these failures under seismic actions are investigated. The estimated acceleration time histories at the rockslide sites were evaluated through a 2D simplified numerical model accounting for the attenuation phenomena and for the topographic effect of the rock cliffs from which the slide detached. Instantaneous stability analyses were carried out to obtain insights into the variability of the instantaneous margin of safety along the development of the shocks over the entire spectrum of mechanisms that could be activated. Finally, some general suggestions on the pseudo-static verification method for three-dimensional cases are proposed, which represent useful indications to hazard evaluation at local and regional scale.