Building a high-resolution site index map using boosted regression trees: the Norwegian case

Accurate estimation of site productivity is essential for forest projections and scenario modelling. We present and evaluate models to predict site index (SI) and whether a site is productive (potential total stem volume production >= 1 m3 center dot ha-1 center dot year-1) in a wall-to-wall high-resolution (16 m x 16 m) SI map for Norway. We investigate whether remotely sensed data improve predictions. We also study the advantages and disadvantages of using boosted regression trees (BRT), a machine-learning algorithm, to create high-accuracy SI maps. We use climatic and topographical data, soil parent material, a land resource map, and depth to water, together with Sentinel-2 satellite images and airborne laser scanning metrics, as predictor variables. We use the SI observed at more than 10 000 National Forest Inventory (NFI) sample plots throughout Norway to fit BRT models and validate the models using 5822 independent temporary plots from the NFI. We benchmark our results against SI estimates from forest monitoring inventories. We find that the SI from BRT has root mean squared error (RMSE) ranging from 2.3 m (hardwoods) to 3.6 m (spruce) when tested against independent validation data from the NFI temporary plots. These RMSEs are similar or marginally better than an evaluation of SI estimates from operational forest management plans where SI normally stems from manual photo interpretation.