Abstract WMP35: Distinct Multivariate Models Predict 3 Month Disability Outcomes From Day 4 Modified Rankin Scale In Patients With Acute Cerebral Ischemia Vs Patients With Intracranial Hemorrhage

Background: Long-term disability after stroke is standardly assessed 3m post-onset, using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), but clinical trial patients lost to follow-up require imputation of likely outcome. An early post-onset, e.g. day 4, mRS is often available but its utility to forecast outcome in ischemic and in hemorrhagic stroke patients has not been delineated. Methods: We analyzed all patients with acute cerebral ischemia (ACI) and with intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) enrolled in the NIH Field Administration of Stroke Therapy- Magnesium (FAST-MAG) Phase 3 trial. The performance of ordinal day 4 mRS, alone and as part of multivariate models, in predicting ordinal day 90 mRS was assessed using Spearman correlation coefficients (r s ) and kappa (chance corrected agreement) statistics. Results: Among the 1206 acute cerebral ischemic patients, age was 70.9, 45.5 % were female, and initial NIHSS was 9.28 ± 8.28. In univariate analysis, day 4 mRS and day 90 mRS correlated strongly, r s = 0.76, weighted kappa = 0.71 increasing in multivariate analysis to r s = 0.78 and weighted kappa = 0.76 (Figure 1A). Among the 367 intracranial hemorrhage patients, age was 65.4, 32.7% were female, and initial NIHSS was 18.3 ± 11. In univariate analysis, day 4 mRS and day 90 mRS also correlated moderately r s = 0.64, weighted kappa = 0.63, increasing in multivariate analysis to r s = 0.81 and weighted kappa = 0.78 (Figure 1B). In the multivariate predictive models, day 4 mRS was the most determinative variable along with age and initial NIHSS for both ICH and ACI. Conclusion: For both acute cerebral ischemia and intracranial hemorrhage patients, long-term, 3m mRS disability outcomes can be predicted well using mRS assessment on day 4, alone and even more accurately in combination with baseline prognostic variables. Age and baseline NIHSS exert more additional influence on 3m mRS outcome in ICH than ACI, likely reflecting the better functional recovery among ICH than ACI stroke survivors.