How asperity size and neighboring segments can change the frictional response and fault slip behavior: insights from laboratory experiments and numerical models

<p>Accurate assessment of rate and state friction parameters is essential for producing realistic rupture scenarios and, in turn, for seismic hazard analysis. Those parameters can be directly measured in the laboratory, with experimental apparati that reproduce fault conditions in nature. Alternatively, indirect estimates (i.e., inversion) of rate and state parameters are based on postseismic slip evolution studies and numerical modeling. Both direct and indirect approaches require a series of assumptions that might bias the results.</p><p>Here we take advantage of a downscaled analog model reproducing experimentally megathrust earthquakes. The analog model shares many characteristics of real subduction zones, although being intentionally oversimplified with respect to nature. This allows reducing the number of potential sources of bias (e.g., fault geometry and asperity size).&#160;</p><p>We perform five analog models with a single, rectangular asperity of different lengths embedded in a nearly velocity neutral matrix. We focus on two different physical conditions, namely the along-strike asperity length and the asperity to neighboring segments length ratio, and study systematically how they tune the model seismic behavior. Then, by coupling quasi-dynamic numerical models with the simulated annealing algorithm, we retrieve rate and state parameters that allow reproducing both the recurrence time, rupture duration and slip amplitude of the analog model, in ensemble.&#160;</p><p>We identify a tradeoff between (a-b) of the asperity and (a-b) of neighboring creeping segments, with multiple combinations that allow mimicking the analog model behavior and variability. We also identify a negative correlation between (a-b) of the asperity and asperity size, with Dc remaining relatively constant within the investigated asperity size range. When estimating (a-b), poorly constrained properties of neighboring segments are responsible for uncertainties in the order of per mille. Roughly one order of magnitude larger uncertainties derive from asperity size. Those results provide a first order assessment of the variability that rate and state friction estimates retrieved for nature conditions might have when used as constraint to model fault slip behavior.</p>