yTrajectories of Insulin Resistance, Incident Heart Failure and All-Cause Death in Nondiabetics: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Introduction: Previous studies have suggested an association between insulin resistance (IR) trajectories and adverse changes in cardiac structure and function in nondiabetic populations. We studied the associations between IR trajectories and incident heart failure (HF) and all-cause death in nondiabetic participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. We hypothesized that long-term moderate and high IR levels would increase the risk of incident HF and all-cause death. Methods: We included 7,835 participants (3,505 men and 4,330 women) aged 45-64 from the ARIC study without diabetes mellitus at any visit, and no history of prevalent HF, myocardial infarction, stroke, arterial or coronary surgery, or cancer at baseline. We estimated IR using Homeostatic Model Assessment-Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR), triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-C), triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and metabolic score for IR (METS-IR). Serum insulin was not available at visits 2 and 3, so HOMA-IR was calculated for visits 1, 4, and 5. Latent class analysis identified two HOMA-IR trajectories, low-increasing and high-increasing, and three trajectories for TG/HDL-C, TyG index, and METS-IR: low-increasing, moderate-stable, and high-decreasing. We employed Cox proportional-hazards models to examine the associations of IR trajectories with incident HF and all-cause death adjusting for potential confounders. Results: Compared to participants in the low-increasing group, those in the high-increasing group of HOMA-IR were more likely to have incident HF and all-cause death (Table 1). For TG/HDL-C, TyG index and METS-IR, we found an increased risk of incident HF in the moderate-stable and high-decreasing groups relative to the low-increasing group. For all-cause death, consistent associations were found only in women (Table 1). Conclusions: Reduction of insulin resistance in nondiabetic individuals may be a suitable target for prevention strategies to reduce cardiovascular disease.