Evaluating the Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness of Once-Weekly Semaglutide 1 mg Versus Liraglutide 1.8 mg: A Health Economic Analysis in the UK

Introduction Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists represent highly efficacious treatment options for type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide was amongst the first authorised for use in 2010, but once-weekly semaglutide represents the most efficacious GLP-1 analogue currently available for type 2 diabetes. The aim of the present analysis was therefore to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of once-weekly semaglutide 1 mg versus liraglutide 1.8 mg with a lowered acquisition cost in the UK, as potentially lower cost liraglutide formulations may soon be developed. Methods Outcomes were projected over patients’ lifetimes using the IQVIA Core Diabetes Model (v9.0). Baseline cohort characteristics were sourced from SUSTAIN 2, with changes in HbA1c, blood pressure and body mass index applied from a network meta-analysis, in which SUSTAIN 2 was used to inform the semaglutide arm. Modelled patients received semaglutide or liraglutide for 3 years, after which treatment was intensified to basal insulin. Costs were accounted from a healthcare payer perspective and expressed in 2021 pounds sterling (GBP). The acquisition cost of liraglutide was reduced by 33% compared with the currently marketed formulation. Results Life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy were projected to improve with once-weekly semaglutide 1 mg, by 0.05 years and 0.06 quality-adjusted life years, respectively, versus liraglutide 1.8 mg. Clinical benefits were due to a reduced incidence of diabetes-related complications with semaglutide. Direct costs were estimated to be GBP 280 lower with semaglutide, entirely because of avoidance of diabetes-related complications versus liraglutide. Semaglutide 1 mg was therefore considered dominant versus liraglutide 1.8 mg, even with the liraglutide price reduced by 33%. Conclusion Once-weekly semaglutide 1 mg is likely to represent a dominant treatment option versus liraglutide 1.8 mg for the treatment of type 2 diabetes in the UK, even with the liraglutide price reduced by 33%.