A dual risk perspective of China's resources market: Geopolitical risk and political risk

Currently, literature is exploring the factors affecting the economic growth of countries and regions. However, there is still a gap in empirical research regarding the connection between risk factors, natural resources, and economic growth, particularly in emerging economies. This study examines the influence of geopolitical risk, political risk, natural resources, and exports on China's economic development during 1983–2021. The Bayer-Hanck combined cointegration results verified the cointegration association between the variables. Using a novel method of movement quantile regression, this study found that geopolitical risk, mineral rents, and exports are positive, while political risk and oil rents adversely affect China's economic growth. These results are robust and consistent as validated by parametric (dynamic ordinary least square, canonical cointegration regression, and fully modified ordinary least square) and non-parametric (bootstrap quantile regression and simple quantile regression) estimators. Based on the empirical results, this study suggested lowering the risk factors and efficiently exploiting and utilizing natural resources for sustainable development.