Predicting impacts of climate change on the biogeographic patterns of representative species richness in Prydz Bay-Amery Ice Shelf

The research on the biological ecology of the Prydz Bay-Amery Ice Shelf in East Antarctica is inadequate under the increasing threat from climate change, especially for Antarctic fish and krill. The Dynamic Bioclimatic Envelope Model (DBEM) has been widely used in predicting the variation of species distribution and abundance in ocean and land under climate change; it can quantify the spatiotemporal changes of multi population under different climate emission scenarios by identifying the environmental preferences of species. The species richness and geographical pattern of six Antarctic representative species around Prydz Bay-Amery ice shelf were studied under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios from 1970 to 2060 using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), and Max Planck Institute (MPI) earth system models. The results showed that the species richness decreased as a whole, and the latitude gradient moved to the pole. The reason is that ocean warming, sea ice melting, and human activities accelerate the distribution changes of species biogeographical pattern, and the habitat range of krill, silverfish, and other organisms is gradually limited, which further leads to the change of species composition and the decrease of biomass. It is obvious that priority should be given to Prydz Bay-Amery ice shelf in the planning of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in East Antarctica.