Assessing the impact of single or short-term administration on a therapy's cost-effectiveness: a hypothetical disease-agnostic model

Aims Assessing the value of single or short-term therapies (SSTs) within traditional cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) has been a topic of discussion as the number of SSTs increases, particularly regarding the effect of discounting on valuation. To quantify the impact of discounting in economic evaluations, a CEA of a hypothetical SST and equivalent chronic therapy was conducted using standard methods. Materials and methods A lifetime Markov model was developed for a hypothetical chronic, progressive disease that could be treated with an SST, chronic therapy, or no novel treatment, termed standard of care (SoC). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) comparing SST vs. SoC and an equivalent chronic therapy vs. SoC were assessed from a payer perspective. Both treatments had equal benefits and undiscounted lifetime costs; 3% discounting was applied to costs/benefits in the base case, and the impact of discounting was assessed. Results In the base case example, both the SST and equivalent chronic therapy vs. SoC had ICERs of $86,000/QALY without discounting. With 3% discounting, the ICER for the SST increased by 116% ($186,000/QALY) while the ICER for the chronic therapy increased by 10% ($95,000/QALY) despite equal clinical benefit. In scenario analyses, the ICER of the SST was consistently higher than the equivalent chronic therapy across a range of assumptions/inputs. Varying the cost/benefit discount rates had a greater impact on the SST. Differences in the ICERs between the therapies increased with increasing life expectancy/time horizon. Limitations The simple model structure may not be reflective of acute or more complex diseases. Also, the scenario of perfect equivalency in efficacy and lifetime costs is hypothetical. Conclusions This quantitative assessment showed the extent to which SST CEAs are highly sensitive to discounting, resulting in worse value assessments for SSTs than equivalent chronic therapies.