Final size of the epidemic for metapopulation vector-borne diseases

There is an increasing worldwide concern on the several diseases transmitted by vectors like Dengue, Zika, or Chikungunya. Thus, in recent years studies about the calculation of summary measurements such as the final size of the epidemic have acquired importance. In particular, this quantity allows estimating the impact that the disease has on the affected population. However, advances in calculating analytical expressions to estimate this measure in the case of infectious transmitted by vectors have been scarce. Most of the applicability of this quantity has been limited to the classic epidemiological model of Kermack McKendrick. This article proposes a methodology to estimate the final size of a vector-borne epidemic. The methodology can be generalized to meta-population models and thus be applied to extended geographical regions. The methodology for a vector-borne disease is presented, and then the case of two distinct geographic regions connected by human mobility is shown. Numerical simulations were carried out to compare with the precision of the analytical approximation. It was observed that the proposed methodology provides a good estimate for the two analyzed cases.(c) 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.