Travel-time, bikes, and HIV elimination in Malawi: a geospatial modeling analysis

Background UNAIDS has prioritized Malawi and 21 other countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for “fast-tracking” the end of their HIV epidemics. To achieve elimination requires treating 90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV); coverage is already fairly high (70–75%). However, many individuals in SSA have to walk to access healthcare. We use data-based geospatial modeling to determine whether the need to travel long distances to access treatment and limited transportation in rural areas are barriers to HIV elimination in Malawi. Additionally, we evaluate the effect on treatment coverage of increasing the availability of bicycles in rural areas. Methods We build a geospatial model that we use to estimate, for every PLHIV, their travel-time to access HIV treatment if driving, bicycling, or walking. We estimate the travel-times needed to achieve 70% or 90% coverage. Our model includes a spatial map of healthcare facilities (HCFs), the geographic coordinates of residencies for all PLHIV, and an “impedance” map. We quantify impedance using data on road/river networks, land cover, and topography. Findings To cross an area of one km2 in Malawi takes from ~60 seconds (driving on main roads) to ~60 minutes (walking in mountainous areas); ~80% of PLHIV live in rural areas. At ~70% coverage, HCFs can be reached within: ~45 minutes if driving, ~65 minutes if bicycling, and ~85 minutes if walking. Increasing coverage above ~70% will become progressively more difficult. To achieve 90% coverage, the travel-time for many PLHIV (who have yet to initiate treatment) will be almost twice as long as those currently on treatment. Increasing bicycle availability in rural areas reduces round-trip travel-times by almost one hour (in comparison with walking), and could substantially increase coverage levels. Interpretation Geographic inaccessibility to treatment coupled with limited transportation in rural areas are substantial barriers to reaching 90% coverage in Malawi. Increased bicycle availability could help eliminate HIV. Funding National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement LP, JTO, and SB acknowledge the financial support of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health (grant R01 AI116493). The authors and institutions did not receive payment of services from a third party for any aspect of the work. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The UCLA Office of the Human Research Protection Program (OHRPP). All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data associated with the study are available within the manuscript or from the authors upon reasonable request.