COVID-19 vaccination in California: Are we equitable yet?

Background By March 2021, California had one of the least equitable COVID-19 vaccine distribution programs in the US. To rectify this, Governor Newsom ordered 4 million vaccine doses be reserved for the census tracts in the lowest quartile of the Healthy Places Index (HPI). California plans to lift state-wide restrictions on June 15th, 2021, as long as test positivity and vaccine equity thresholds are met in the state’s most vulnerable neighborhoods. This short investigation examines current vaccine equity and forecasts where California can expect to be when the economy fully reopens. Methods Current vaccine equity was investigated with simple linear regression between the county mean HPI and both single and full-dose vaccination rate. Future vaccination coverage per county were predicted using a compartmental mathematical model based on the average rate over the previous 30 days with four different rate-change scenarios. Results County mean HPI had a strong positive association with both single and full dose vaccination rates ( R 2: 0.716 and 0.737, respectively). We predict the overall state rate will exceed 50% fully vaccinated by June 15th if the current rates are maintained; however, the bulk of this coverage comes from the top 18 counties while the remaining 40 counties lag behind. Discussion The clear association between county HPI and current vaccination rates shows that California is not initiating opening plans from an equitable foundation, despite previous equity programs. If nothing changes, many of the most vulnerable counties will not be prepared to open without consequences come June 15th. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No external funding was received. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: All data used in this study was publicly available reported in aggregate. Approval by an ethics board was not necessary. All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as [ClinicalTrials.gov][1]. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Model code is available at our persistent repository (10.5281/zenodo.4795419). [https://github.com/yurygarcia26/California\_Vaccine\_Coverage/tree/V1][2] [1]: http://ClinicalTrials.gov [2]: https://github.com/yurygarcia26/California_Vaccine_Coverage/tree/V1