Urban flood risk differentiation under land use scenario simulation

Summary: The frequent urban floods have seriously affected the regional sustainable development in recent years. It is significant to understand the characteristics of urban flood risk and reasonably predict urban flood risk under different land use scenarios. This study used the random forest and multi-criteria decision analysis models to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of flood risk in Zhengzhou City, China, from 2005 to 2020, and proposed a robust method coupling Bayesian network and patch-generating land use simulation models to predict future flood risk probability. We found that the flood risk in Zhengzhou City presented an upward trend from 2005 to 2020, and its spatial pattern was “high in the middle and low in the surrounding areas”. In addition, land use patterns under the sustainable development scenario would be more conducive to reducing flood risk. Our results can provide theoretical support for scientifically optimizing land use to improve urban flood risk management.