Capacity for national and regional self-reliance in fruit and vegetable production in the United States

Increased fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption would have important health benefits but would also have significant impacts on the U.S. agricultural system. The United States is currently a net importer of these foods but global agricultural systems face growing pressure to feed more people with fewer resources while also adapting to climate change. Thus, increasing self-reliance may become a key strategy to ensuring a stable supply of nutrient-dense foods in the United States. However, the capacity to increase the production of specific foods to accommodate shifts towards healthier dietary patterns or increase self-reliance is not well documented. We estimated the extent to which the United States could meet current and recommended F&V consumption through domestic production based on biophysical capacity at the national and regional levels. Land suitability maps from a previous study were combined with state-level yield data to estimate biophysical capacity and food availability data were used to estimate F&V consumption. A net-balance analysis was conducted to compare production capacity to food consumption under both diet scenarios. Our results indicate that the United States could meet current and recommended F&V needs of Americans through domestic production and that each region could meet regional F&V consumption. However, while self-reliance is biophysically possible, it would require substantial changes in dietary patterns and land use. These findings provide insight into the feasibility and agricultural implications of self-reliance at the national and regional levels.