The contrasting response of crop production and pest damage to ENSO cycles

ENTOMOLOGIA GENERALIS(2023)

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摘要
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon that has fundamental effects on the terrestrial environments and ecosystem functions. Based on observed crop production and pest damage of a 41-y time series from 1980-2020 in China, the present study examined ENSO's long-term effects on agroecosystems and found that changing crop yields per hectare and pest outbreaks can ultimately be connected to ENSO cycles by comparing the effect sizes of respective responses across different ENSO phases. The El Nino phases (the warming phases) and La Nina phases (the cooling phases) have had opposite effects on crop yields and damage of arthropod pests in most cases, and such effects were climatic-region-dependent. Our evidence demonstrates that the climatic origin of a crop could associate with its responses to ENSO phases: wheat benefited from La Nina phases when planted in subtropical climates and from El Nino phases when planted in the middle temperate climate; rice were resilient to El Nino phases in warmer areas, while La Nina phases significantly increased the rice yield in the subtropical climate. Corn yields were significantly lower during El Nino phases in all four climatic regions, while La Nina phases significantly increased corn yields only in the Tibetan Plateau. Additionally, we found higher pest damage occurring during El Nino phases and lower damage occurring during La Nina phases for many arthropod species. Our improved understanding of crops and arthropod herbivore responses to ENSO phases can contribute to predicting global impacts of climate changes on agriculture and food security.
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关键词
El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,agroecosystem,insect pest,crop yield,climate change
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