Adapting energy systems to a changing climate -- The Destination Earth Use Case Energy Systems

In liberalized electricity markets, the planning and operation of the electricity grids, often, is done by private companies under the control of a public authority. Following their mandates, the European transmission system operators for electricity implement, among other analyses, national grid extension plans, the Europe-wide Ten-Year Network Development Plan and the European Resources Adequacy Assessment. To achieve evidence-based decision-making, they rely on the best-available meteorological and/or climatological information on a variety of scales, from the local distribution grid level to the European transmission system, and from short-term forecasts for the operation to climate scenarios for investment decisions. Here, the capabilities of the new Destination Earth (DestinE) Digital Twin on climate adaption can make a significant impact. It is expected that the explicit modelling of physical processes on the storm- and cloud-resolving scale also leads to a more realistic and accurate representation of the solar and wind resources. This offers great opportunities for improved energy system modelling and opens the door for new innovative approaches for adding the analysis of climate information into standard modelling workflows applied in the energy sector. However, there is a lack of knowledge about available meteorological data sets, their characteristics and the implications of using different data sets for grid planning and adequacy assessment activities in the user community. Standardized tools and methods to add the analysis of climate change and/or climate uncertainty to user workflows rarely exist. This hinders energy system modelers to make full use of the available meteorological information and, consequently, prevents users from tapping the full potential of the data. As energy systems become more dependent on weather, and as the uncertainties about climate change impacts rise, the operation and planning of integrated energy systems becomes an increasingly complex task. Aim of this presentation is the introduction of a DestinE Use Case for the energy sector jointly implemented by DLR, the Renewables Grid Initiative and Aarhus University. By developing and implementing a representative Demonstrator exemplarily showcasing the use of climate information in the energy sector for grid planning and resources adequacy assessment purposes, this Use Case will make a valuable contribution to the co-design of energy and climate models. Furthermore, the user community will be equipped with the tools, methods and the knowledge needed to ensure the safe and clean supply of energy in Europe in accordance with the Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and the European Union’s “Fit for 55” goals. Overall, our Use Case shall further strengthen the collaboration between the climate sciences, the energy systems analysis and the end-users from the energy sector.