Oncolytic virus treatment of human breast cancer cells: Modelling therapy efficacy

Oncolytic viruses are a promising new treatment for cancer, whereby viruses are engineered to selectively destroy cancer cells. Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the virus-tumour system can be modelled to provide insight into the system outcomes under different treatment protocols. In this study key metrics of treatment efficacy were identified and the mathematical model used to develop a decision framework to assess different treatment protocols.The optimal treatment outcome is the interplay between the virus application protocol and the uncertainty about the tumour characteristics. The uncertainty in the model parameters decreases as more data is available for their inference - however to obtain more data more time is required and the tumour then grows in size. Thus, there is an inherent tension whether it is better to wait to know the characteristics of the tumour system better or immediately initiating treatment.It is shown that, for small tumours, parameter inference with limited data does not constrain the choice of treatment protocol and rather only influences longer term decisions.