Assessment and Adjustment of Export Embodied Carbon Emissions with Its Domestic Spillover Effects: Case Study of Liaoning Province, China

Export embodied carbon emissions (EECE) and their domestic spillover effects (DSE) are typical interregional carbon transfer phenomena. They have diversified impacts for different regions within a country, and result in the associated effect on the economy and environment. From 2007 to 2017, the EECE of China was mainly concentrated in five provinces, and EECE intensity mostly decreased. Liaoning Province had the largest EECE intensity and EECE growth from 2012 to 2017. Based on the multi-region input-output tables of China, we applied the Multi-region Input-output Model and constructed the Coupling Relationship Model for trade value and carbon emission, quantitatively assessed the EECE and its DSE for Liaoning Province, depicted the spatial-temporal evolution patterns, proposed sectoral adjustment countermeasures, and evaluated the adjustment effects. The research found that the EECE and its DSE of Liaoning Province was 32.08 MtCO2 and 5.43 MtCO2 in 2017. It was mainly concentrated in the metal smelting and rolling processing sector (MetalSmelt) and the petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing sectors (RefPetral). The spatial agglomeration effect was obvious, and Jilin Province was the largest DSE region. According to the Coupling Relationship Model of export trade value and export embodied carbon emissions, the sectors were divided into four types, and different adjustment countermeasures were proposed, such as encouragement, control, targeted promotion and targeted reduction. For the MetalSmelt and the RefPetral, if the export value reduced 100 million CNY, the EECE would be reduced by 21.57 ktCO2 and 23.35 ktCO2, respectively, and the DSE would be reduced by 1.59 ktCO2 and 1.65 ktCO2, respectively. The conclusions could provide a decision-making basis for the case area to formulate lower-cost and better-effective carbon reduction adjustment countermeasures. It could also provide reference and scientific support for the achievement of “Carbon Neutrality” and sustainable development in similar regions of the world with the rapid growth of EECE.