Research on the Impact of Output Adjustment Strategy and Carbon Tax Policy on the Stability of the Steel Market

China's steel industry has not yet implemented a carbon tax policy, and its benefits and impacts are still in the theoretical research stage. In addition, enterprises have an insufficient ability to respond to changes in production and sales, which seriously affects the market's stability. The government should simultaneously start from multiple perspectives, such as energy conservation, emission reduction, dynamic adjustments, and business decisions. Therefore, this research constructs a repeated dynamic game model including carbon tax policy and other mixed reduction policies, and studies the stability and related indicators of the market. The results are as follows: (1) the output adjustment policies that enterprises can implement will show an increasing trend under the single carbon tax policy. (2) The output adjustment policies that enterprises with larger output will also show an increasing trend under the mixed emission reduction policy when emission reduction targets continue to increase. (3) Smaller-output enterprises need to be more cautious in formulating their production plans, and their output adjustment policies will be restricted and affected by more factors. In summary, enterprises should comprehensively consider emission reduction policies, output adjustment policies and other enterprises' output changes, to ensure that the steel market will not fall into an imbalanced state.