Interannual variability of the Australian summer monsoon sustained through internal processes: wind-evaporation feedback, dynamical air-sea interaction and soil moisture memory

Abstract In northern Australia (NAUS), mean rainfall during the Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) season exhibits distinct interannual variability despite weak influence from tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The present study investigates mechanisms for the strong and persistent rainfall anomalies throughout the AUSM season. When the AUSM is stronger than normal, the low-level monsoonal circulation intensifies in response to the stronger convective activity over NAUS. The intensified surface westerlies over the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO) enhance oceanic evaporation locally and downstream moisture transport into NAUS. This wind-evaporation feedback is verified through a moist static energy budget analysis. For this feedback to work effectively, SST cooling due to the stronger AUSM should be weak enough not to suppress the oceanic evaporation in the tropical SEIO. Our mixed-layer heat budget analysis based on an ocean model hindcast experiment reveals that anomalous downwelling in the subsurface SEIO, which is induced dynamically by the intensified monsoon westerlies, partially offsets the SST cooling. The land-surface evaporation over the continental inland area is also enhanced significantly in the middle and later portions of the monsoon season associated with increased soil moisture, suggesting its memory effect for the persistence of rainfall anomalies. The AUSM variability can therefore be regarded as a self-sustaining internal variability in the atmosphere-ocean-land surface coupled system, rather than just an atmospheric internal variability.