Modeling the Potential Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Hydrology of Himalayan River Basin

The Himalayan range is a source of major river systems in India, especially in the northern and northeastern parts of the country. Due to the growth in population, natural and anthropogenic factors are putting severe stress on the land resources and regional water resources in both qualitative and quantitative aspects in the region. The change in hydrological patterns may affect biodiversity and related hazards. The main objective of this study is to predict the impact of change in land-use land-cover patterns on the hydrology of the Manipur River basin. Comprehensive physical-based semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to analyze the impact of change in LULC. From the model results it was observed that there is an increase of 3.04 m3/s (2.02%) and 12.1 mm (2.07%) in runoff and actual evapotranspiration, respectively, and a decrease in water yield by 10.35 mm (1.48%) for 2030. The increase in runoff and decrease in water yield contribution is mainly due to drastic changes in the area being builtup, whereas an increase in the open water bodies is one of the main reasons behind the increase in actual evapotranspiration. An increase in the built-up area increases the area under the paved surface, which minimizes the infiltration capacity which leads to an increase in surface runoff and a decrease in water yield contribution. There is a requirement for properly formulating environmental preservation policies and proper urban planning for the sustainable use of resources.