Artificial Neural Networks for COVID-19 Forecasting in Mexico: An Empirical Study
INTELLIGENT COMPUTING THEORIES AND APPLICATION (ICIC 2022), PT I(2022)
摘要
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have encountered interesting applications in forecasting several phenomena, and they have recently been applied in understanding the evolution of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic. Alone or together with other mathematical, dynamical, and statistical methods, ANN help to predict or model the transmission behavior at a global or regional level, thus providing valuable information for decision-makers. In this research, four typical ANN have been used to analyze the historical evolution of COVID-19 infections in Mexico: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LTSM) neural networks, and the hybrid approach LTSM-CNN. From the open-source data of the Resource Center at the John Hopkins University of Medicine, a comparison of the overall qualitative fitting behavior and the analysis of quantitative metrics were performed. Our investigation shows that LSTM-CNN achieves the best qualitative performance; however, the CNN model reports the best quantitative metrics achieving better results in terms of the Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Error. The latter indicates that the long-term learning of the hybrid LSTM-CNN method is not necessarily a critical aspect to forecast COVID-19 cases as the relevant information obtained from the features of data by the classical MLP or CNN.
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关键词
COVID-19, Forecasting, Artificial Neural Networks, Deep learning
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