Recent evidence on the short-term and long-term performance persistence of emerging-market mutual fund returns

This paper analyzes the performance persistence of US-based emerging-market mutual funds. We use a sample of 275 actively managed funds between July 1989 and December 2020 and regress their returns on emerging-market benchmark portfolios. On average, the funds had a significant negative alpha. Contrary to some earlier evidence, we document that the short-term consistency is entirely driven by losses of underperforming funds. The return spread between the short-term winners and losers generates a significant positive alpha that can be fully explained by the momentum in emerging-market stocks. We find no evidence of any long-term regularities. Our findings show that the observed funds exhibit very similar behavior to their developed-market counterparts and may contribute to resolving some inconsistencies in the earlier results.