Potential of Health Insurance Claims Data to Predict Fractures in Older Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study

Purpose: In older adults, fractures are associated with mortality, disability, loss of independence and high costs. Knowledge on their predictors can help to identify persons at high risk who may benefit from measures to prevent fractures. We aimed to assess the potential of German claims data to predict fractures in older adults. Patients and Methods: Using the German Pharmacoepidemiological Research Database (short GePaRD; claims data from -20% of the German population), we included persons aged >= 65 years with at least one year of continuous insurance coverage and no fractures prior to January 1, 2017 (baseline). We randomly divided the study population into a training (80%) and a test sample (20%) and used logistic regression and random forest models to predict the risk of fractures within one year after baseline based on different combinations of potential predictors. Results: Among 2,997,872 persons (56% female), the incidence per 10,000 person years of any fracture in women increased from 133 in age group 65-74 years (men: 71) to 583 in age group 85+ (men: 332). The maximum predictive performance as measured by the area under the curve (AUC) across models was 0.63 in men and 0.60 in women and was achieved by combining information on drugs and morbidities. AUCs were lowest in age group 85+. Conclusion: Our study showed that the performance of models using German claims data to predict the risk of fractures in older adults is moderate. Given that the models used data readily available to health insurance providers in Germany, it may still be worthwhile to explore the cost-benefit ratio of interventions aiming to reduce the risk of fractures based on such prediction models in certain risk groups.