Prediction of the typhoon wind field in Hong Kong: integrating the effects of climate change using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

This work offers a new perspective on the predictions of the wind fields of typhoons in Hong Kong, which takes into consideration the effects of climate change. An integrated model combining (1) the Monte-Carlo simulation methodology, (2) four future climate change scenarios gathered from the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), and (3) a refined typhoon wind field model combined with the probabilistic models of typhoon key parameters has been developed and validated herein, by employing the four climate scenarios reported in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The direct consequence is that the probability distributions of the six key parameters of a typhoon’s wind fields—translational velocity, approach angle, central pressure deficit, the radius of maximum wind, the distance of closest approach, and annual occurrence rate—should be modified according to the increase in sea surface temperatures. In this study, the key parameters are drawn from the modified distributions and input into the refined wind field models to predict the typhoon wind field in the future with preset climate change scenarios. Via the Monte-Carlo simulations of 10,000 virtual typhoons, the probabilistic characteristics of the typhoon wind speeds and directions are predicted. More specifically, the predictions at the Waglan Island in Hong Kong are compared with the corresponding statistics calculated from the current meteorology database, and the comparisons suggest that the rise of SST will result in slight increases in typhoon wind speeds. In addition, the typhoon wind direction, in general, drifts counterclockwise due to the increase in SSTs.