Scenario Analysis of Renewable Energy Development and Carbon Emission in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (BTH) is a key area with large carbon emissions in China and a demonstration area for renewable energy development, facing the dual test of energy structure transformation and the achievement of carbon peak and neutrality goals. This study analyzes the main influencing factors of carbon emissions based on Kaya’s identity, establishes a socio-economic-energy-carbon emission coupled with system dynamics (SD) model, and designs five scenarios to predict and compare the future trends of energy consumption, renewable energy development and carbon emissions in BTH, respectively. The results show that (1) under the baseline scenario, energy carbon emissions in BTH will peak around 2034, and the intermediate development scenario, the transition development scenario and the sustainable development scenario all show that the region can achieve the emission peak target around 2030. (2) The renewable energy output value of BTH will reach CNY 486.46 billion in 2050 under the baseline scenario, and the share of renewable energy consumption will exceed 50% under the sustainable development scenario. (3) Increasing energy tax regulation and scientific and technological investment and adopting more stringent policy constraints can guarantee the lowest emission intensity while maintaining the current social and economic development level. This study predicts the development of a renewable energy industry and carbon emissions in BTH under different scenarios and provides policy recommendations for the future energy transition in the region.