Potential benefits of climate change for potatoes in the United States

Abstract Potatoes are a mainstay of human diets and 4 million metric tons are produced annually in the United States. Simulations of future crop production show that climate change is likely to reduce the yields of the major grain crops around the world, but the impacts on potato production have yet to be determined. A model ensemble consisting of five process-based and one statistical model was used to estimate the impact of climate change on fully irrigated, well-fertilized potato crop across the USA under the RCP8.5 scenario of high emissions. Results indicate that increasing temperature will reduce potato yields, but this will be mostly compensated by elevated atmospheric CO2. Yields are projected to decline with climate change in the current highest-yielding areas, which would experience the highest rises in growing season temperature during short hot summers. Simulated yields increase slightly elsewhere in the southern regions of the USA. Planting potatoes earlier as adaptation to avoid hot summers would improve yields in most regions. Water use by the potato crop is projected to decline despite higher temperatures, due to a shorter growing season and increased water use efficiency under elevated atmospheric CO2. With higher yields in many regions, crop uptake for NPK fertilizer will increase, despite the reduced concentration of nutrients in potatoes due to a growth stimulus from elevated atmospheric CO2. With earlier planting, by 2050 water use will decline by 11.7%, NPK fertilizer uptake will increase by 10.4%, and yields of slightly less nutritious potatoes will increase by 14.9% nationally.