Comprehensive evaluation and scenario simulation of carrying capacity of water resources in Mu Us sandy land, China

Abstract With the rapid improvement in socioeconomic conditions globally, the demand for water resources has dramatically increased. Evaluating water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) is crucial for regional sustainable development. To date, limited attention has been paid to WRCC in areas of predominantly sandy land, with the impact of vegetation restoration in ecologically degraded areas on WRCC remaining unclear. In this study, using a comprehensive evaluation index and a system dynamics model, we evaluated the WRCC of the Mu Us Sandy Land, Inner Mongolia, China, from 2000 to 2019 then projected to 2030. Our results show WRCC has decreased since 2000, reaching a general state by 2019. In a future scenario where historical development remains unabated, WRCC will continue to decline to a poor carrying state by 2030. The comprehensive scheme based on industrial restructuring and water conservation performed the best in terms of WRCC, continuously increasing and returning to a general carrying state by 2030. Our findings highlight the WRCC of the Mu Us Sandy Land is not optimistic and subsequent ecological restoration should proceed with caution. A comprehensive scheme is an optimal development strategy for the future.