Geographical Sevird Covid-19 Model With Travel Restrictions

2022 Annual Modeling and Simulation Conference (ANNSIM)(2022)

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摘要
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models have been widely used to study the spread of Covid-19. These models have been improved to include other states (e.g., exposed, deceased) as well as geographical level transmission dynamics. In this paper, we present an extension to an existing SEVIRD (Susceptible – Exposed – Vaccinated – Infected – Recovered – Death) model to include the effect of air and maritime travel as well as travel restrictions. We use the model to simulate the spread of Covid-19 through 13 different countries. The case study shown illustrates how the model can be used for rapid prototyping at a geographical level and adapted to include changing policies.
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关键词
Disease Spread,Geographical Modeling,Travel Rules,Cell-DEVS.
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