Teak ( Tectona grandis L.f.) demonstrates robust adaptability to climate change scenarios in central India

Central India, predicted to be one of the most severe hotspots for extreme climatic events, is a recognised major center of genetic diversity for the teak ( Tectona grandis L.f . )—a high-value timber species. Understanding the impact of climate change on the sustainability of teak is critical for planning and management strategies for this important timber species. We used MaxEnt, to ascertain the current habitats of teak and projected its suitable habitats for the year 2050. We considered 19 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database for global climatic models (GCM), IPSL_CM5A_LR, and NIMR_HADGEM2_AO under different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios such as RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. Our findings showed that at present, ~ 4.53% (41,054.3 km 2 ) of the studied area provides suitable habitats for teak and a range expansion of ~ 5.68–7.01% by the year 2050, depending upon RCPs and GCMs. The findings indicated an increase in the habitat range of teak in the northern and eastern part but a decrease in the southern part of central India by 2050. Bioclimatic variable isothermality (Bio_3) contributed most in limiting the distribution of teak for the current climatic scenario, whereas, temperature seasonality (Bio_4) and precipitation of the driest month (Bio_14) contributed most for 2050 projections under both the scenarios. The study indicated robust adaptability of teak to climate change, and in the future, the suitable habitat is likely to increase in the central Indian region. The study provides vital insight into the likely distribution scenario of teak in the face of climate change, and offers valuable information for strategizing teak management initiatives in the region.