Identifying Space Threats for SpaceAware Resilience- a Spacecraft and Satellite Service Resilience Model

The world has become very reliant on satellites. Businesses, Governments and Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) are using space systems at an unprecedented scale. For example, timing signals from GNSS synchronise high speed financial transactions and energy networks, while communications networks rely on satellites for connectivity, broadcast infrastructure and backhauling. However, the dependence of our society on space systems means we are vulnerable to any threats to space infrastructure. Whilst governance is one of the keys to effective space security, protection and planning also play critical roles. This work focusses on planning, by modelling threats to space systems. The aim of this work was to contribute the satellite element to an application or ‘app’ being developed for military and civilian infrastructure managers and business leaders. The app will allow the evaluation of risk to spacecraft and to all the downstream elements of infrastructure and business processes that they service. This app is a software model called ‘SpaceAware Resilience’. Previously it modelled only the downstream impact of degraded services from satellites but did not model the risk to the satellite systems themselves. The objective of this work was to add this element to the model. This included evaluating a variety of threats to satellite systems and establishing some possible threat scenarios for later demonstration purposes. This work was limited to threats to the orbiting satellite itself, as the least understood part of the infrastructure, not to the ground stations or up- or downlinks. Two types of threats were established: unintentional and intentional. Unintentional threats included space debris and space weather radiation effects on satellites and their services, intentional threats included anti-satellite weapons and cyber-attacks. Risk scenarios were selected based on incidents with historical data available. This information will help the next stage of modelling likelihood and impact. It is hoped that this improved threat model will help agencies, companies and government learn more about the key vulnerabilities of space systems, the infrastructure they serve and possible mitigations.