COVID-19 pneumonia: Prediction of patient outcome by CT-based quantitative lung parenchyma analysis combined with laboratory parameters

Objectives To evaluate the prognostic value of fully automatic lung quantification based on spectral computed tomography (CT) and laboratory parameters for combined outcome prediction in COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods CT images of 53 hospitalized COVID-19 patients including virtual monochromatic reconstructions at 40-140keV were analyzed using a fully automated software system. Quantitative CT (QCT) parameters including mean and percentiles of lung density, fibrosis index (FIBI-700, defined as the percentage of segmented lung voxels >=-700 HU), quantification of ground-glass opacities and well-aerated lung areas were analyzed. QCT parameters were correlated to laboratory and patient outcome parameters (hospitalization, days on intensive care unit, invasive and non-invasive ventilation). Results Best correlations were found for laboratory parameters LDH (r = 0.54), CRP (r = 0.49), Procalcitonin (r = 0.37) and partial pressure of oxygen (r = 0.35) with the QCT parameter 75th percentile of lung density. LDH, Procalcitonin, 75th percentile of lung density and FIBI-700 were the strongest independent predictors of patients' outcome in terms of days of invasive ventilation. The combination of LDH and Procalcitonin with either 75th percentile of lung density or FIBI-700 achieved a r(2) of 0.84 and 1.0 as well as an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.99 and 1.0 for the prediction of the need of invasive ventilation. Conclusions QCT parameters in combination with laboratory parameters could deliver a feasible prognostic tool for the prediction of invasive ventilation in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.