Shrinking Habitats and Native Species Loss Under Climate Change: A Multifactorial Risk Assessment of China's Inland Wetlands

Wetlands are highly productive ecosystems that host unique biota and provide vital ecosystem services. Despite their critical importance, we still lack a fundamental understanding of factors controlling species suitability and climate change impacts in wetlands essential to conserving these imperiled ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic threats. Here, we applied ecological niche models (ENMs) inferred from a massive nationwide data set including field surveys and herbarium specimens representing 101 dominant plant species of China's inland wetlands, to explore the potential climate-driven shifts in these ecosystems. Our optimal models applying machine learning and integrating key aspects of climate, soil, topographic hydrology, and anthropogenic disturbance, identified that (a) species of different types (e.g., woody/nonwoody) showed significant differences in their sensitivity to extracted key environmental factors (e.g., isothermality, water table depth) in wetlands; (b) native wetland species likely face habitat shrinkage under climate change, especially in Northeast China, as well as potential encroachment of xeric and nonnative species; (c) only less than 20% of projected conservation hotspots are currently protected. We propose four protection gaps that need to be addressed urgently in China's current wetland protection framework. This study clarifies the conservation priorities of China's inland wetlands and provides practical guidelines for the improvement of wetland conservation efforts.