Sea Level Rise Future Predictions: A Case Study in Crete

This work presents an estimation approach for coastal data with regard to climate change. Specifically, future sea level rise (SLR) values are predicted on the basis of initial corresponding values, which are identical to the values for the year 2025 that are provided by the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD). The proposed estimator is named Coastal Data Estimator (CDE) and is used for predictions in the Crete island, Greece. During the years from 2030 to 2100, the CDE estimation performance is evaluated against the MCD regarding the representative concentration pathways 2.6 (RCP26), 4.5 (RCP45) and 8.5 (RCP85) as well as the medium and high ice-sheet melting scenarios. Concerning the high ice-sheet melting scenario in RCP26, the CDE deviates less than 10% for the years 2030-2065 and 2080-2100. In the case of RCP45, the CDE estimator achieves predictions with deviations less than 10% from the year 2030 to the year 2080 and 2075 for medium and high scenario, correspondingly. Future work includes the CDE testing in other Mediterranean sites. Additionally, the CDE equation could become multibranch as well as estimations should be automized, excluding the per year constants.