STATE OF ART OF SARIMA MODEL IN SECOND WAVE ON COVID-19 IN INDIA

The COVID-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc on society and the current situation the country is in now clearly shows the failure of predicting the second wave in India. Several variants of the coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 have been detected around the world. With several mutations, some are said to be more contagious than the original strain; the recent one is the Indian variant. This necessitates a wholesome study for modeling and forecasting COVID-19 cases in India, which will help us to be prepared. The bottleneck underlines here is the very nature of the virus, which is continuously mutating and unavailability to real-time and precise data for the purpose. This paper is an effort in this regard to the model and forecast the second wave in India. The dataset covers the period 2021-01-16 to 2021-05-16, where different models were used. SARIMA modeling was used for forecasting the cases, deaths and vaccinations using the best-fitted model. The results depict that the prediction was good as the predicted figures were found to be close to the observed values. In this context, we tried to study the pattern of propagation of this variant in India by modeling and forecasting the new deaths, new cases, total deaths, total cases and the total vaccination. Findings are alarming, especially, in the context of the difficulties of the health system in India.