Utilization of Standardized College Entrance Metrics to Predict Undergraduate Student Success in Chemistry

Quantitative metrics are widely employed todetermine the probability of an applicant succeeding in a specificprogram of interest, ranging from undergraduate or graduateadmissions to fellowships. The admissions office at the UnitedStates Military Academy at West Point uses an internal collegeentrance examination rank (CEER) assessment algorithm of highschool students, based on ACT and SAT scores in addition toconsideration of high school performance, to assess studentacademic abilities and their probability of surpassing graduationrequirements. To develop a tool for predicting student performance infirst-semester general chemistry, we utilized CEER scores topredict student success on the national exam produced by the American Chemical Society (ACS) for general chemistry. Our resultsshow that CEER is a strong predictor of student outcomes and a better predictor when compared to SAT Math, ACT Science, orACT Math in isolation. Further stratification of the CEER distribution into four categories, ranging from at-risk to high achiever,identified a gradient by which students are likely to exceed the national average on the ACS exam. To further assess this prediction,we then demonstrated that the CEER brackets correlated closely to student grades in the course, therein illustrating its utility inpredicting categories of students who are likely to fail, underperform, or excel. We anticipate that these tools are broadlygeneralizable to undergraduate admissions decisions, can assist in the placement process for students in general or advanced sectionsof chemistry, could yield insight when making scholarship or fellowship decisions, and more broadly can facilitate the design ofgroup learning dynamics aimed at enhancing student outcomes.