A Century‐Long Trajectory of Phosphorus Loading and Export From Mississippi River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico: Contributions of Multiple Environmental Changes

Phosphorus (P) control is critical to mitigating eutrophication in aquatic ecosystems, but the effectiveness of controlling P export from soils has been limited by our poor understanding of P dynamics along the land-ocean aquatic continuum as well as the lack of well-developed process models that effectively couple terrestrial and aquatic biogeochemical P processes. Here, we coupled riverine P biogeochemical processes and water transport with terrestrial processes within the framework of the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model to assess how multiple environmental changes, including fertilizer and manure P uses, land use, climate, and atmospheric CO2, have affected the long-term dynamics of P loading and export from the Mississippi River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico during 1901-2018. Simulations show that riverine exports of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), dissolved organic phosphorus, particulate organic phosphorus (POP), and particulate inorganic phosphorus (PIP) increased by 42%, 53%, 60%, and 53%, respectively, since the 1960s. Riverine DIP and PIP exports were the dominant components of the total P flux. DIP export was mainly enhanced by the growing mineral P fertilizer use in croplands, while increased PIP and POP exports were a result of the intensified soil erosion due to increased precipitation. Climate variability resulted in substantial interannual and decadal variations in P loading and export. Soil legacy P continues to contribute to P loading. Our findings highlight the necessity to adopt effective P management strategies to control P losses through reductions in soil erosion, and additionally, to improve P use efficiency in crop production.