Study on the heterogeneity of China’s agricultural economic growth in the context of temperature shocks

Under the background of the new development concept, compared with the absolute impacts, the relative impacts of climate change on agricultural growth deserve more attention. Based on the data from China for years 1991 and 2018, this paper uses historical fluctuations in temperature within cities to identify the heterogeneous effects on aggregate agricultural outcomes during farming and fallow periods. The results show that: first, as temperature rises reduce the economic growth rate of each agricultural sector, and the areas that are relatively vulnerable (i.e., areas where disposable income of farm households is below the sample mean) are more significantly affected by the negative impact of temperature rise; second, the impact of temperature rise on agricultural economic growth is mainly concentrated in the farming period, while the marginal damage of temperature rise is on a decreasing trend; third, the heterogeneous impact of temperature rise on agricultural economic growth during the agricultural fallow period is also not negligible. At the same time, its impact on agricultural economy is still in the primary stage, that is, its marginal damage tends to increase with the increase in temperature fluctuation. These results inform identifying the climate’s role in agricultural development and provide a theoretical and operational perspective for further optimizing the adaptive policy systems. With wide coverage of adaptive technology, we should pay more attention to the even distribution of technological dividends and continuously improve the coping ability of vulnerable groups.