A generic risk assessment model for animal disease incursion through wildlife

Animal diseases can be introduced into countries or regions through wildlife. A generic risk model would allow to quantify this incursion risk for different diseases and wildlife species, despite the vast variety in both. Here, we propose such a generic risk assessment model and illustrate its workings by assessing the incursion risk of African swine fever (ASF) through wild boar and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) through wild birds for the Netherlands between 2014-2021. We used disease outbreak data and abstracted movement patterns to populate a stochastic risk model. We found that the incursion risk of HPAI fluctuated between the years with a peak in 2021. In that year, we estimated the number of infected birds to reach the Dutch border by wild bird migration at 261 (95% uncertainty interval: 248-278). The probability that ASF outbreaks that occurred between 2014 and 2021, reached the Dutch border through wild boar movement was very low throughout the whole period; only the upper confidence bound indicated a small incursion risk. On a yearly scale, the predicted incursion risk for HPAI correlated well with the number of observed outbreaks. In conclusion, we present a generic and flexible framework to assess the incursion risk of disease through wildlife. The model allows rapid and transparent estimation of the incursion risk for diverse diseases and wildlife species. The modular structure of the model allows to add nuance and complexity, when required or when more data becomes available. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.