Changes in Fault Slip Potential Due to Water Injection in the Rongcheng Deep Geothermal Reservoir, Xiong'an New Area, North China

The Xiong'an New Area is abundant in geothermal resources due to its unique geological structure. To address whether large-scale deep geothermal exploitation will induce a fault slip, we first determined the initial in situ stress field using shallow (~4000 m) in situ stress measurements from the North China plain. After characterizing the in situ stress field, we analyzed the initial stability of the main active faults in the sedimentary strata of the Rongcheng deep geothermal reservoir based on the Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria. Assuming that this area will be subjected to forty years of continuous fluid injection, we calculated the excess pore pressure in the deep geothermal reservoir and, subsequently, estimated the fault slip potential of the main active faults in this region from 2021 to 2060. Our results indicated that both the in situ stress field in the shallow crust of the Xiong'an New Area and the Middle-Late Pleistocene active faults will initially maintain a stable state. With constant fluid injection for forty years at six geothermal wells in the Rongcheng deep geothermal reservoir, the maximum superposed excess pore pressure at a single well is 18 MPa; this excess pore pressure value impacts the stress state of faults within 8 km of the well location. These pore pressure perturbations heavily impact the F5-10, F5-11, and F9-2 segments of the Rongcheng uplift boundary fault, with FSP values of 92%, 23%, and 47% in 2060, respectively. Porosity exacts little impact on the fault slip potential on the boundary fault segments of F5-10 and F9-2 in the Rongcheng deep geothermal reservoir, while an enhanced permeability can weaken the FSP values for these faults. The predicted maximum moment magnitude of an induced earthquake due to continuous injection of forty years can be up to M-w 5.0 with a 5% fluid loss in the Rongcheng deep geothermal reservoir. Long-term water injection may increase the ambient thermoelastic stress to the point where faults in a critical (or subcritical) stress state become unstable. The results can provide a reference for geothermal development in terms of injection rate and locations of geothermal wells.