Water shortage risk evaluation and its primary cause: Empirical evidence from rural China

This study explores the level of rural water shortage risk from the perspective of disaster risk and poverty. Based on related causes and characteristics, we quantitatively analyze the water shortage risk in rural China during 1997-2019. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal evolution is tested based on the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and kernel density estimation (KDE) models. Finally, we use the obstacle model to explore the main factors affecting water shortage risk. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The results show three types in rural China: high-risk areas, medium-risk areas, and low-risk areas. The rural water shortage risk declines over time, and the improvements in the rural areas are evident. (2) Within rural China, the trend shows positive spatial correlation and temporal variation. (3) Factors that impact the water shortage risk mainly include population with access to clean water, degree of damage caused by farmland flood and drought, soil erosion control area, drainage area of farmland, lag rate of the agricultural economy, agricultural population density, per capita water consumption, and fiscal self-sufficiency of the government. The research findings provide a theoretical foundation for the evaluation of rural water shortage risk and a regional strategy to relieve rural water shortage.