The Impact of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Carbon Emission toward China's Sustainable Development

It is of practical significance to evaluate whether enhancing outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) can promote carbon mitigation under the new urbanization background toward China's sustainable development and carbon neutrality. The impact of OFDI on carbon emissions is investigated from the dual perspectives of the urbanization threshold and the mediating path by using panel data from China's 30 provinces during the period of 2003-2015 and considering both population and land. The results show that there is a significant impact from interprovincial OFDI on CO2 emissions with the double threshold effect of urbanization, and that OFDI expansion will increase CO2 emissions with urbanization; however, the different stages of urbanization show inverted U-shaped characteristics that first rise and then fall. The optimization of industrial structures has not passed the mediating effects test during the sample period, while the rationalization of the industrial structure provides a mediating effect in the primary stage of urbanization and a suppressing effect in the high level stage of urbanization. Import dependence only shows a masking effect in the intermediate stage of urbanization, while the technical level shows an intermediary effect in the primary stage of urbanization and a masking effect in the intermediate stage. The intensification of OFDI has brought different effects on economic and social production in various regions of China under urbanization, which has further affected regional carbon emissions. Discussing these effects would help to provide constructive suggestions for the regional coordination of development, new urbanization construction and urban low carbon transformation.