Developing policy packages for low-carbon passenger transport: A mixed methods analysis of trade-offs and synergies

Transformation to climate neutrality of the transport sector raises multiple challenges at a time, with potentially conflicting objectives and further external effects. This calls for a balanced policy package of which empirical assessment is needed in order to i) quantify its effectiveness and ii) reveal effects of potential overlaps and in-teractions associated with individual measures within the package. This paper analyses the economic, envi-ronmental and distributional effects of a policy package that supports low-carbon passenger transport in Austria, co-developed with policy experts and stakeholders. The package includes hard measures such as a mandated phase-out of conventional cars and explicit road pricing, as well as soft measures to foster the uptake of public transportation. To assess these packages we make use of a computable general equilibrium model for Austria that incorporates heterogeneous household groups, CO2 emissions and a detailed representation of the transport sector. We show that the decoupling of economic welfare and negative external effects of passenger transport is possible with a balanced policy package. Our analysis also highlights potential urban-rural conflicts, regressive impacts and negative public budget implications of single policy measures, issues that the suggested policy package as a whole can mitigate.