The future role of reverse logistics as a tool for sustainability in food supply chains: a Delphi-based scenario study

Purpose The importance of integrating sustainability into business activities rises continuously. In addition to an established focus on forward logistics, there is a growing awareness of reverse logistics. Reverse logistics ensures sustainable practices and increases competitiveness for companies, but it also comes with challenges. Therefore, the implementation of reverse logistics is associated with uncertainties. This paper aims to fill this gap by analyzing the development and comprehensive potential of reverse logistics as a sustainability tool. Design/methodology/approach To bridge the research gap, a real-time Delphi study was conducted. Through an extensive desk research, semi-structured interviews and an expert workshop, 14 projections for the German food sector of 2040 were created. A total of 49 experts in the field of logistics, reverse logistics and food logistics assessed the future projections concerning estimated probability, impact and desirability of occurrence. Findings The findings derived lead to three possible future scenarios as well as potential drivers and barriers that food companies, the government and society need to consider to enable a successful transition toward implementing reverse logistics in food supply chains. Originality/value The study examined the future role of reverse logistics as a sustainability tool in food supply chains. The results serve as a framework for decision-making on the sustainable orientation of business practices, leading to increased competitiveness and resilient business strategy. Several implications are derived for practitioners, policymakers and society to promote reverse logistics. Methodologically, this study extends existing Delphi methods by conducting a quantitative dissent and sentiment analysis, considering various surface-level and deep-level diversity characteristics.