Urbanising food systems: exploring opportunities for rural transformation

Urbanisation is transforming food systems across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia in conjunction with other dynamics like rising average welfare. Where overall food demand is projected to increase approximately 2.5fold in sub-Saharan Africa and 1.7-fold in South Asia, urban demand will rise two to four times more. In particular the demand for high-value products such as dairy and processed foods will multiply. A further increase in economic inequality in combination with the growing urban populations are expected to pose a risk to future food security. Uncertainties in projections are however large, due to interacting and unpredictable socioeconomic and environmental developments and events, as well as the future implementation and operation of policies and investments. This paper shows that the rise in food demand by 2050 can, potentially, largely be met regionally especially in most parts of India, and sub-Saharan Africa, especially southern Africa. Water-saving measures and improved agricultural practices have to be implemented to meet this scenario, although the impacts of climate change can decrease yield with up to 15%. However, the potential yield increases or diversification will not automatically contribute to inclusive rural transformation. Conversely, urbanisation may potentially increase rural inequality and poverty. Smallholder farmers close to expanding cities are at risk of losing their land to urbanisation processes. Also people living in isolated areas far away from growing urban food markets or rural people who lack access to inputs, information and markets are at risk of losing out. To let all rural food system actors profit from the changing and growing urban markets, the spatial patterns of urbanisation, the quality of rural-urban linkages and the functionality of secondary towns are of pivotal importance. Physical and communicative proximity and access to urban markets for all can provide better access to finance, inputs, information and services. Furthermore, off-farm employment opportunities can arise in the developing value chains. To realise the opportunities, this paper identifies a range of social, physical, spatial, economic and institutional conditions that enable inclusive rural transformation.