Development and validation of a composite score to predict severe forms of ischemic colitis

Objective To develop a simple scoring system in order to predict the risk of severe (death and/or surgery) ischemic colitis Methods In this retrospective study, 205 patients diagnosed with ischemic colitis in a tertiary hospital were consecutively included over a 6-year period. The study sample was sequentially divided into a training cohort ( n = 103) and a validation cohort ( n = 102). In the training cohort, multivariable analysis was used to identify clinical, biological, and CT variables associated with poor outcome and to build a risk scoring system. The discriminative ability of the score (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value) was estimated in the two cohorts to externally validate the score, and a receiver operating characteristic curve was established to estimate the area under the curve of the score. Bootstrapping was used to validate the score internally. Results In the training cohort, four independent variables were associated with unfavorable outcome: hemodynamic instability (2 pts), involvement of the small bowel (1 pt), paper-thin wall pattern (3 pts), no stratified enhancement pattern (1 pt). The score was used to categorize patients into low risk (score: 0, 1), high risk (score: 2–3), and very high risk (score: 4–7) groups with sensitivity and specificity of 97% and 67%, respectively, and a good discriminating capability, with a C-statistic of 0.94. Internal and external validation showed good discrimination capability (C-statistics of 0.9 and 0.84, respectively). Conclusion A simple risk score can stratify patients into three distinct prognosis groups, which can optimize patient management. Clinical trial number NCT04662268 Key Points • Simple scoring system predicting the risk of severe ischemic colitis • First study to include CT findings to the clinical and biological data used to determine a severity score.