Impact of U.S. Preventative Services Task Force grade D recommendation against prostate-specific antigen screening on prostate cancer mortality.

51 Background: The U. S. Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation regarding prostate-specific antigen (PSA) transitioned to a grade D recommendation against PSA screening for adult males in 2012. The impact of this recommendation against PSA screening on prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) in contemporary cohorts is unknown. Our study evaluated PCSM between 1999-2019, comparing mortality rates before and after this change to screening guidelines. Methods: Age-adjusted PCSM rates per 100,000 men were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics from 1999 – 2019. Trends in PCSM rates from 1999 – 2012 and 2014 – 2019 were estimated using linear regression with year and binary indicator of pre-2013/post-2013 status as interaction terms. Age-adjusted rates of PCSM were calculated for men ≥50 years and by race, ethnicity, urbanization and census region. Similarly, age-adjusted rates of overall cancer mortality (exclusive of PCSM) were calculated. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System was used to establish trends in PSA screening from 2001 – 2018. North American Association of Central Cancer Registries was used to determine age-adjusted incidence of localized and metastatic PC at the time of diagnosis from 1999 – 2017. Results: The age-adjusted PCSM rate in the U.S. decreased linearly at a rate of (-)0.28 per 100,000/year from 1999 – 2012 and subsequently stalled at a rate of no change from 2014 – 2019 (p < 0.001). This effect was particularly striking for men aged 60 – 69, men > 80 years, and Black men. Men aged 60 – 64 had a decreasing rate of (-)0.009 per 100,000/year prior to 2013, followed by a rise of (+)0.001 per 100,000/year (p < 0.001). Among Black men, PCSM rate was decreasing linearly at (-)0.700/100,000/year from 1999-2012 and flattened at a rate of (-)0.091/100,000/year from 2014-2019 (p < 0.001). These changes were seen across races, urbanization and census regions (p < 0.001) and were accompanied by decreases in PSA screening (p = 0.02) together with increases in diagnosis of metastatic disease. These trends were inconsistent with mortality trends observed across all malignancies. Conclusions: Using comprehensive data on PCSM through 2019, this study illustrates decreasing PCSM over time which flattened or increased following the 2012 change in USPSTF guideline, along with a decrease in PSA screening. The change in PCSM was seen in all ages, races, ethnicities, urbanization and census regions, but particularly in men from 60 – 69 and > 80 years old, and Black men. These changes were accompanied by increased diagnosis of metastatic PC and are discordant from trends across other malignancies. These findings suggest that the change in PSA screening guideline may have contributed to the stagnancy of PCSM rates in recent years. The updated 2018 USPSTF guideline supporting shared-decision making may reverse these trends over time.