Efficacy of biologic drugs in short-duration versus long-duration inflammatory bowel disease: a systematic review and indvidual-patient-data metanalysis of randomized controlled trials

Abstract BACKGROUND Starting biologic treatment early in the course of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) may associate with higher efficacy, especially in Crohn’s disease (CD). METHODS A systematic review and individual-patient-data meta-analysis of all placebo-controlled trials of biologics approved for IBD at study inception (Oct 2015), using Vivli data-sharing platform. The primary outcome was the proportional biologic/placebo treatment effect on induction-of-remission in patients with short-duration (≤18months) versus long-duration disease (>18months) analyzed separately for CD and ulcerative colitis (UC). We used meta-regression to examine the impact of patients’ characteristics on the primary outcome. Study PROSPERO registration: CRD42018041961. RESULTS We obtained data from five biologics drug manufacturers and included 25 trials, testing infliximab, adalimumab, certolizumab, golimumab, natalizumab or vedolizumab (6,168 CD, 3,227 UC patients). In CD, induction-of-remission rates were higher in pooled placebo and active arms’ patients with short-disease duration≤18 months (41.4%, 244/589) compared with disease-duration>18months (29.8%, 852/2857, meta-analytically estimated OR=1.33, 95%CI:1.09-1.64). The primary outcome, proportional biologic/placebo treatment effect on induction-of-remission, was not different in short-duration disease ≤18 months (n= 589, OR 1.47, 95%CI:1.01-2.15) compared with longer disease-duration (n=2857, OR 1.43, 95%CI:1.19-1.72). In UC trials, both the proportional biologic/placebo remission-induction effect and the pooled biologic-placebo effect were stable regardless of disease duration. Primary outcome results remained unchanged when tested using alternative temporal cut-offs and when modelled for individual-patients’ co-variates, including prior anti-TNFs exposure. In exploratory post-hoc analysis comparing patients with colonic-CD (L2) versus small-bowel L1 CD (and excluding ileo-colonic L3 disease) the OR for induction-of-remission in long-duration disease>18months compared with short-duration disease was 0.62 for small-bowel CD (95%CI: 0.42; 0.91) but was not significant in pooled colonic CD population (OR=0.94, 95%CI: 0.66; 1.34) CONCLUSION This Individual patient level meta-analysis of multiple biologics’ clinical trials found there a higher rate of induction-of-remission in early CD for both biologics and placebo, resulting in a treatment-to-placebo effect ratio which is similar across different disease durations. No such relationships between disease-duration and outcomes is found in UC. Rate of remission induction by duration of disease at initiation of treatment. The dots denote proportion of an outcome averaged per the respective year.